Thursday, May 18, 2006

Deal or No Deal?

I love this show!!! I must admit that when American Idol is on that I switch from it, but otherwise I love to watch. Here's my deal...if I were on the show. I'd figure out what it'd take for me to pay off my house, and a lot of my debt; vehicles, credit cards, etc. I would decide prior to going on the show that if I got "an offer" from the banker that would come close to doing this deed I would TAKE IT!! But, then I realized that you have taxes you have to pay, so I'd have to take MORE than I would actually need. Then what would that amount be? Should I take the deal, what if Shelby tells them she wants a pony or a puppy and they parade it in front of me!??! Man, I am stressed out already and I have no chance of ever being on the show! *LOL* Guess I'll just play the guess the case game at home from the comforts of my own couch. Until then here's a great article I found on it. Thought I'd share...

Do the math, man! A dozen gambling sites have pointed out that at the beginning of each game, the average payout for the suitcases is $113,477.54...
“Our first offer averages 10% of the value of the remaining cases, the second offer, 20%. We don’t get close to a ‘statistically fair’ offer unless the player has eliminated all the big values and is playing for peanuts, or it gets down where somebody other than the math nerd from “Num3ers” can figure it out. But then, there’s also a thing called the ‘median average’ which is just the exact middle of an ordered list of numbers. For our numbers, that’s between $750 and $1000, so anything over a grand is, in theory, all gravy. There’s a
scholarly paper written by a team of economists analyzing contestants from the European versions of the show for risk aversion and the “break-even effect...”“

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